V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
16.01%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
16.39%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
17.58%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2249 | 5.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0890 | 9.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8808 | 74.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0354 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.1766 | 3.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.3031 | -8.52*** |
| γ4 | 0.2773 | 6.30*** |
| γ5 | -0.1987 | -3.59*** |
| γ6 | 0.1321 | 2.44** |
| γ7 | -0.0526 | -1.13 |
| γ8 | -0.0284 | -0.60 |
| γ9 | 0.0567 | 1.55 |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2249 | 5.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0890 | 9.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8808 | 74.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0354 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.1766 | 3.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.3031 | -8.52*** |
| γ4 | 0.2773 | 6.30*** |
| γ5 | -0.1987 | -3.59*** |
| γ6 | 0.1321 | 2.44** |
| γ7 | -0.0526 | -1.13 |
| γ8 | -0.0284 | -0.60 |
| γ9 | 0.0567 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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