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V-Lab

Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

18.08%

increased by 0.76%

1 Week

18.28%

increased by 0.96%

1 Month

18.93%

increased by 1.61%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1860
5.70***
αARCH0.0890
9.60***
βGARCH0.8814
75.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0397
-0.99
γ20.1805
3.16***
γ3-0.3014
-8.46***
γ40.2749
6.29***
γ5-0.1971
-3.58***
γ60.1322
2.45**
γ7-0.0546
-1.18
γ8-0.0261
-0.56
γ90.0558
1.55

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1860
5.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0890
9.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8814
75.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0397
-0.99
γ20.1805
3.16***
γ3-0.3014
-8.46***
γ40.2749
6.29***
γ5-0.1971
-3.58***
γ60.1322
2.45**
γ7-0.0546
-1.18
γ8-0.0261
-0.56
γ90.0558
1.55

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days