V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.08%
increased by 0.76%
1 Week
18.28%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
18.93%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1860 | 5.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0890 | 9.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8814 | 75.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0397 | -0.99 |
| γ2 | 0.1805 | 3.16*** |
| γ3 | -0.3014 | -8.46*** |
| γ4 | 0.2749 | 6.29*** |
| γ5 | -0.1971 | -3.58*** |
| γ6 | 0.1322 | 2.45** |
| γ7 | -0.0546 | -1.18 |
| γ8 | -0.0261 | -0.56 |
| γ9 | 0.0558 | 1.55 |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1860 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0890 | 9.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8814 | 75.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0397 | -0.99 |
| γ2 | 0.1805 | 3.16*** |
| γ3 | -0.3014 | -8.46*** |
| γ4 | 0.2749 | 6.29*** |
| γ5 | -0.1971 | -3.58*** |
| γ6 | 0.1322 | 2.45** |
| γ7 | -0.0546 | -1.18 |
| γ8 | -0.0261 | -0.56 |
| γ9 | 0.0558 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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