V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.41%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
19.53%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
19.92%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2241 | 5.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 9.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8816 | 75.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0360 | -0.91 |
| γ2 | 0.1779 | 3.14*** |
| γ3 | -0.3044 | -8.49*** |
| γ4 | 0.2784 | 6.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.1992 | -3.57*** |
| γ6 | 0.1320 | 2.43** |
| γ7 | -0.0526 | -1.12 |
| γ8 | -0.0275 | -0.58 |
| γ9 | 0.0552 | 1.50 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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