V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
19.07%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
19.49%
increased by 1.31%
1 Month
20.99%
increased by 2.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 110% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~108 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 110% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0410 | 4.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0553 | 4.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9079 | 114.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.0609 | 2.69*** |
0.994
Persistence108d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0410 | 4.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0553 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9079 | 114.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0609 | 2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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