V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.86%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
21.22%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
22.54%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 110% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0410 | 18.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0551 | 19.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9082 | 458.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0606 | 10.74*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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