V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.61%
1 Week
19.81%
1 Month
20.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.4300 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.0631 | 10.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9944 | 238.30*** |
| νDF | 6.4997 | 2.22** |
0.994
Persistence124d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4300 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 10.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9944 | 238.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4997 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
Other Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities