V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
21.08%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
21.25%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
21.92%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4439 | 5.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0629 | 43.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9944 | 957.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4936 | 8.88*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
Other Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities