V-Lab
Daiwa House Industry Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
16.71%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
16.98%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
18.00%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4348 | 1.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 10.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9944 | 238.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4803 | 2.23** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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