Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
31.85%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
33.55%
increased by 1.37%
1 Month
35.46%
increased by 3.28%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 02:01 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2016 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3692 | 5.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.1726 | 5.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5984 | 8.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.3902 | 3.38*** |
| γ2 | -3.4827 | -3.24*** |
| γ3 | 1.5985 | 1.92* |
| γ4 | -0.0399 | -0.05 |
| γ5 | -0.9950 | -1.35 |
| γ6 | -0.2068 | -0.28 |
| γ7 | 2.6409 | 4.01*** |
| γ8 | -3.6282 | -5.31*** |
| γ9 | 2.4327 | 2.75*** |
| γ10 | -0.7753 | -1.00 |
0.771
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3692 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1726 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5984 | 8.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.3902 | 3.38*** |
| γ2 | -3.4827 | -3.24*** |
| γ3 | 1.5985 | 1.92* |
| γ4 | -0.0399 | -0.05 |
| γ5 | -0.9950 | -1.35 |
| γ6 | -0.2068 | -0.28 |
| γ7 | 2.6409 | 4.01*** |
| γ8 | -3.6282 | -5.31*** |
| γ9 | 2.4327 | 2.75*** |
| γ10 | -0.7753 | -1.00 |
Persistence:
0.771
Half-life:
3 days
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