V-Lab
Wuxi Honghui New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
41.88%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
39.09%
decreased by 2.97%
1 Month
33.59%
decreased by 8.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9076 | 4.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1611 | 4.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6982 | 11.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.1446 | 2.17** |
| γ2 | -1.9716 | -2.59*** |
| γ3 | 1.8661 | 3.54*** |
| γ4 | -1.7229 | -3.11*** |
| γ5 | 0.5158 | 0.84 |
| γ6 | 1.0508 | 1.71* |
| γ7 | -1.9013 | -3.41*** |
| γ8 | 1.4952 | 3.45*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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