V-Lab
Tng Invt & Trading Jsc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
34.24%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
35.81%
increased by 1.67%
1 Month
39.13%
increased by 4.99%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 55% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0742 | 15.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7257 | 45.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0409 | 7.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8915 | 0.47 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6028 | 0.46 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0695 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
3 days
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