V-Lab
Tng Invt & Trading Jsc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.13%
increased by 1.27%
1 Week
36.37%
increased by 2.51%
1 Month
40.30%
increased by 6.44%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.8741 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1016 | 25.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 187.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5411 | 10.02*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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