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V-Lab

Tng Invt & Trading Jsc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

35.13%

increased by 1.27%

1 Week

36.37%

increased by 2.51%

1 Month

40.30%

increased by 6.44%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:51 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Tng Invt & Trading Jsc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 16, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.8741
5.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1016
25.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9740
187.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5411
10.02***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days