Trusval Technology EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
42.34%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
43.17%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
45.23%
increased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:46 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1832 | 3.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.2778 | 4.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9172 | 36.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.0550 | 1.44 |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1832 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2778 | 4.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9172 | 36.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0550 | 1.44 |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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