V-Lab
BEVEST ASA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
114.10%
decreased by 22.21%
1 Week
114.07%
decreased by 22.24%
1 Month
113.93%
decreased by 22.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 21, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 49.9889 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1510 | 67.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9899 | 564.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8061 | 60.98*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities