V-Lab
BEVEST ASA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
66.51%
1 Week
71.86%
1 Month
77.32%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 21, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2146 | 7.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5306 | 5.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1737 | -3.96*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.2583 | 0.10 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7704 | 0.08 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.658
Half-life:
2 days
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