V-Lab
Alice Queen Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
168.40%
decreased by 8.30%
1 Week
167.08%
decreased by 9.62%
1 Month
163.88%
decreased by 12.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 9, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0785 | 17.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8675 | 79.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0006 | 0.10 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7836 | 0.97 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0166 | 1.14 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9751 | 40.62*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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