Abionyx Pharma SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
64.30%
decreased by 23.70%
1 Week
74.10%
decreased by 13.90%
1 Month
88.51%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5404 | 17.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3178 | 23.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1094 | -1.65* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8267 | 0.81 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0073 | 1.26 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9672 | 26.04*** |
Persistence:
0.804
Half-life:
3 days
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