V-Lab
Abionyx Pharma SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
77.83%
decreased by 37.97%
1 Week
81.80%
decreased by 34.00%
1 Month
91.23%
decreased by 24.57%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.5470 | 3.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3435 | 8.92*** |
| γleverage | -0.1175 | -0.46 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6310 | 0.59 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0069 | 0.90 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9734 | 25.79*** |
0.832
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5470 | 3.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3435 | 8.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1175 | -0.46 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6310 | 0.59 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0069 | 0.90 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9734 | 25.79*** |
Persistence:
0.832
Half-life:
4 days
Other Abionyx Pharma SA Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities