V-Lab
Abionyx Pharma SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
49.40%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Week
65.56%
increased by 14.28%
1 Month
83.57%
increased by 32.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5423 | 17.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3064 | 21.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1219 | -1.89* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7685 | 0.78 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0070 | 1.21 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9681 | 25.84*** |
Persistence:
0.788
Half-life:
3 days
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