Abionyx Pharma SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
60.94%
decreased by 10.03%
1 Week
70.03%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
82.85%
increased by 11.88%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.5491 | 3.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3334 | 8.74*** |
| γleverage | -0.1600 | -0.65 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6021 | 0.61 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0065 | 0.90 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9732 | 25.66*** |
0.803
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5491 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3334 | 8.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1600 | -0.65 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6021 | 0.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0065 | 0.90 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9732 | 25.66*** |
Persistence:
0.803
Half-life:
3 days
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