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V-Lab

Abionyx Pharma SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

77.83%

decreased by 37.97%

1 Week

81.80%

decreased by 34.00%

1 Month

91.23%

decreased by 24.57%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Abionyx Pharma SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2016 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.5470
3.84***
βGARCH0.3435
8.92***
γleverage-0.1175
-0.46
λ₁tau intercept0.6310
0.59
λ₂forecast adj.0.0069
0.90
λ₃tau persistence0.9734
25.79***

0.832

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5470
3.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3435
8.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1175
-0.46
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6310
0.59
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0069
0.90
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9734
25.79***

Persistence:

0.832

Half-life:

4 days