Abionyx Pharma SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
131.72%
increased by 3.29%
1 Week
140.57%
increased by 12.14%
1 Month
157.16%
increased by 28.73%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 2.17 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 117.6913 | 0.59 |
| αscore | 0.1717 | 3.26*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8884 | 4.59*** |
| νDF | 2.1688 | 9.99*** |
0.888
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 117.6913 | 0.59 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1717 | 3.26*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8884 | 4.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1688 | 9.99*** |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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