Amrest Holdings Se GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
25.37%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Week
26.74%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
30.25%
increased by 3.22%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 07:08 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2005 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 4.79 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.5886 | 2.87*** |
| αscore | 0.1040 | 5.46*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9435 | 46.88*** |
| νDF | 4.7891 | 1.86* |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.5886 | 2.87*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1040 | 5.46*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9435 | 46.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7891 | 1.86* |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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