V-Lab
Amrest Holdings Se GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
22.92%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
25.07%
increased by 0.91%
1 Month
30.18%
increased by 6.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2005 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 3.49 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.6852 | 1.75* |
| αARCH | 0.1010 | 4.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9395 | 26.57*** |
| νDF | 3.4885 | 2.59*** |
0.940
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.6852 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1010 | 4.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9395 | 26.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4885 | 2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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