Freehold Royalties Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
19.53%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
19.87%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
21.10%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0228 | 1.91* |
| αARCH | 0.0661 | 7.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9261 | 106.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.4825 | 3.43*** |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0228 | 1.91* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0661 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9261 | 106.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4825 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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