V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
20.70%
increased by 0.56%
1 Week
20.63%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
20.39%
increased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6235 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0718 | 6.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9004 | 61.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4313 | -3.30*** |
| γ2 | 0.5795 | 2.82*** |
| γ3 | -0.0928 | -0.75 |
| γ4 | -0.1485 | -1.38 |
| γ5 | 0.0930 | 0.82 |
| γ6 | 0.1157 | 1.03 |
| γ7 | -0.2369 | -1.90* |
| γ8 | 0.2204 | 1.94* |
| γ9 | -0.2463 | -2.81*** |
| γ10 | 0.2355 | 3.57*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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