Freehold Royalties Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.83%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
16.14%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
17.16%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7601 | 5.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0707 | 7.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9076 | 72.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2676 | -4.28*** |
| γ2 | 0.4434 | 4.09*** |
| γ3 | -0.2641 | -2.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.1070 | 1.47 |
| γ5 | 0.0058 | 0.10 |
| γ6 | -0.0131 | -0.21 |
| γ7 | -0.0903 | -1.36 |
| γ8 | 0.1282 | 2.63*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7601 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0707 | 7.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9076 | 72.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2676 | -4.28*** |
| γ2 | 0.4434 | 4.09*** |
| γ3 | -0.2641 | -2.98*** |
| γ4 | 0.1070 | 1.47 |
| γ5 | 0.0058 | 0.10 |
| γ6 | -0.0131 | -0.21 |
| γ7 | -0.0903 | -1.36 |
| γ8 | 0.1282 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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