V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
16.53%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
16.68%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
17.17%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6257 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0717 | 6.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9013 | 62.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4330 | -3.32*** |
| γ2 | 0.5839 | 2.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.0979 | -0.79 |
| γ4 | -0.1467 | -1.37 |
| γ5 | 0.0978 | 0.86 |
| γ6 | 0.1051 | 0.94 |
| γ7 | -0.2235 | -1.78* |
| γ8 | 0.2062 | 1.78* |
| γ9 | -0.2347 | -2.62*** |
| γ10 | 0.2312 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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