V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.18%
increased by 4.39%
1 Week
19.15%
increased by 4.36%
1 Month
19.07%
increased by 4.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6284 | 5.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0717 | 6.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9014 | 62.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4293 | -3.29*** |
| γ2 | 0.5791 | 2.83*** |
| γ3 | -0.0970 | -0.78 |
| γ4 | -0.1467 | -1.38 |
| γ5 | 0.0995 | 0.88 |
| γ6 | 0.1013 | 0.92 |
| γ7 | -0.2197 | -1.77* |
| γ8 | 0.2039 | 1.76* |
| γ9 | -0.2352 | -2.63*** |
| γ10 | 0.2335 | 3.49*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6284 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0717 | 6.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9014 | 62.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4293 | -3.29*** |
| γ2 | 0.5791 | 2.83*** |
| γ3 | -0.0970 | -0.78 |
| γ4 | -0.1467 | -1.38 |
| γ5 | 0.0995 | 0.88 |
| γ6 | 0.1013 | 0.92 |
| γ7 | -0.2197 | -1.77* |
| γ8 | 0.2039 | 1.76* |
| γ9 | -0.2352 | -2.63*** |
| γ10 | 0.2335 | 3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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