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Freehold Royalties Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

19.99%

increased by 2.13%

1 Week

20.10%

increased by 2.24%

1 Month

20.48%

increased by 2.62%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Freehold Royalties Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7596
5.78***
αARCH0.0705
7.11***
βGARCH0.9078
72.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.2687
-4.27***
γ20.4449
4.07***
γ3-0.2643
-2.96***
γ40.1064
1.45
γ50.0069
0.11
γ6-0.0148
-0.24
γ7-0.0865
-1.28
γ80.1239
2.52**

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7596
5.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0705
7.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9078
72.81***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.2687
-4.27***
γ20.4449
4.07***
γ3-0.2643
-2.96***
γ40.1064
1.45
γ50.0069
0.11
γ6-0.0148
-0.24
γ7-0.0865
-1.28
γ80.1239
2.52**

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days