Freehold Royalties Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
19.60%
1 Week
19.56%
1 Month
19.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 26% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.23 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0462 | 7.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1934 | 16.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8046 | 70.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.0929 | 3.57*** |
| δpower | 1.2324 | 7.50*** |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0462 | 7.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1934 | 16.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8046 | 70.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0929 | 3.57*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2324 | 7.50*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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