V-Lab
Saudi Industrial Export Co AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
40.84%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
41.24%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Month
42.60%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2005 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.27) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1921 | 11.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 20.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8846 | 153.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2723 | 3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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