V-Lab
Saudi Industrial Export Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
31.93%
decreased by 2.58%
1 Week
31.38%
decreased by 3.13%
1 Month
29.82%
decreased by 4.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2005 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0346 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 7.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8198 | 34.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0807 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 0.2476 | 1.87* |
| γ3 | -0.2824 | -2.50** |
| γ4 | 0.2135 | 1.69* |
| γ5 | -0.1860 | -1.43 |
| γ6 | 0.1672 | 1.61 |
| γ7 | -0.1871 | -1.87* |
| γ8 | 0.1746 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
Other Saudi Industrial Export Co Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities