V-Lab
Saudi Industrial Export Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
32.72%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
33.72%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
37.16%
increased by 3.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2005 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0678 | 11.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8640 | 79.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0344 | 6.04*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.2434 | 0.30 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3209 | 0.28 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3623 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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