V-Lab
Saudi Industrial Export Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
37.13%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Week
37.49%
decreased by 1.83%
1 Month
38.72%
decreased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2005 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0740 | 12.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8497 | 80.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0348 | 5.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.9202 | 0.38 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3029 | 0.37 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4257 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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