Akita Bank Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
49.51%
decreased by 4.53%
1 Week
48.18%
decreased by 5.86%
1 Month
45.33%
decreased by 8.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 87% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 87% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0755 | 4.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7307 | 18.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.0656 | 2.56** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0863 | 2.15** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0493 | 2.26** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9271 | 29.85*** |
0.839
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0755 | 4.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7307 | 18.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0656 | 2.56** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0863 | 2.15** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0493 | 2.26** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9271 | 29.85*** |
Persistence:
0.839
Half-life:
4 days
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