V-Lab
Akita Bank Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
36.17%
increased by 3.48%
1 Week
35.76%
increased by 3.07%
1 Month
34.48%
increased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.0540 | 3.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8785 | 39.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0490 | 1.95* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.6990 | 0.06 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2839 | 0.02 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0540 | 3.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8785 | 39.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0490 | 1.95* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.6990 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2839 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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