V-Lab
Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
50.54%
increased by 16.18%
1 Week
50.04%
increased by 15.68%
1 Month
49.53%
increased by 15.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.6477 | 1.50 |
| αARCH | 0.2053 | 1.70* |
| βGARCH | 0.7327 | 3.75*** |
| νDF | 3.1549 | 1.48 |
0.733
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.6477 | 1.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2053 | 1.70* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7327 | 3.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1549 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.733
Half-life:
2 days
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