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Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

67.92%

decreased by 2.64%

1 Week

60.68%

decreased by 9.88%

1 Month

52.87%

decreased by 17.69%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.6250
5.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2060
6.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7188
13.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0963
5.86***

Persistence:

0.719

Half-life:

2 days