V-Lab
Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
67.92%
decreased by 2.64%
1 Week
60.68%
decreased by 9.88%
1 Month
52.87%
decreased by 17.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.6250 | 5.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2060 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7188 | 13.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0963 | 5.86*** |
Persistence:
0.719
Half-life:
2 days
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