V-Lab
Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
41.66%
increased by 3.50%
1 Week
44.95%
increased by 6.79%
1 Month
48.11%
increased by 9.95%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.6982 | 5.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2135 | 7.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7393 | 15.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1741 | 6.14*** |
Persistence:
0.739
Half-life:
2 days
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