Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
40.80%
increased by 4.70%
1 Week
45.18%
increased by 9.08%
1 Month
49.11%
increased by 13.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.1981 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2042 | 6.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7276 | 13.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9657 | 6.32*** |
Persistence:
0.728
Half-life:
2 days
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