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Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

37.54%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

42.73%

increased by 5.28%

1 Month

47.41%

increased by 9.96%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.16 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst9.6464
1.49
αARCH0.2107
1.73*
βGARCH0.7348
3.80***
νDF3.1638
1.52

0.735

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.6464
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2107
1.73*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7348
3.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1638
1.52

Persistence:

0.735

Half-life:

2 days