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Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

50.54%

increased by 16.18%

1 Week

50.04%

increased by 15.68%

1 Month

49.53%

increased by 15.17%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.15 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst9.6477
1.50
αARCH0.2053
1.70*
βGARCH0.7327
3.75***
νDF3.1549
1.48

0.733

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.6477
1.50
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2053
1.70*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7327
3.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1549
1.48

Persistence:

0.733

Half-life:

2 days