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Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

58.79%

decreased by 11.81%

1 Week

54.73%

decreased by 15.87%

1 Month

49.47%

decreased by 21.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 10.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run9.8267
5.04***
αscore0.2345
2.23**
βpersistence0.7741
12.24***
νDF10.0090
0.42

0.774

Persistence

3d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

9.8267
5.04***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.2345
2.23**
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.7741
12.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.0090
0.42

Persistence:

0.774

Half-life:

3 days