V-Lab
Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
37.54%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
42.73%
increased by 5.28%
1 Month
47.41%
increased by 9.96%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.16 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.6464 | 1.49 |
| αARCH | 0.2107 | 1.73* |
| βGARCH | 0.7348 | 3.80*** |
| νDF | 3.1638 | 1.52 |
0.735
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.6464 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2107 | 1.73* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7348 | 3.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1638 | 1.52 |
Persistence:
0.735
Half-life:
2 days
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