Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

41.66%

increased by 3.50%

1 Week

44.95%

increased by 6.79%

1 Month

48.11%

increased by 9.95%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.6982
5.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2135
7.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7393
15.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.1741
6.14***

Persistence:

0.739

Half-life:

2 days