Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
58.79%
decreased by 11.81%
1 Week
54.73%
decreased by 15.87%
1 Month
49.47%
decreased by 21.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 10.01 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 9.8267 | 5.04*** |
| αscore | 0.2345 | 2.23** |
| βpersistence | 0.7741 | 12.24*** |
| νDF | 10.0090 | 0.42 |
0.774
Persistence3d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 9.8267 | 5.04*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.2345 | 2.23** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.7741 | 12.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.0090 | 0.42 |
Persistence:
0.774
Half-life:
3 days
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