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Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

40.80%

increased by 4.70%

1 Week

45.18%

increased by 9.08%

1 Month

49.11%

increased by 13.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Bellini Nautica S P A GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.1981
5.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2042
6.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7276
13.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9657
6.32***

Persistence:

0.728

Half-life:

2 days