Bellini Nautica S P A MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.65%
increased by 2.51%
1 Week
40.47%
increased by 8.33%
1 Month
43.38%
increased by 11.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4033 | 18.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1016 | 4.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0233 | -0.69 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1246 | 0.71 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1487 | 0.73 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7085 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.493
Half-life:
1 days
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