Bellini Nautica S P A MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
53.21%
decreased by 14.79%
1 Week
53.07%
decreased by 14.93%
1 Month
54.93%
decreased by 13.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.3417 | 2.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1626 | 1.84* |
| γleverage | 0.0003 | 0.00 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.3444 | 0.81 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2317 | 0.80 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6074 | 1.24 |
0.504
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3417 | 2.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1626 | 1.84* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0003 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.3444 | 0.81 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2317 | 0.80 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6074 | 1.24 |
Persistence:
0.504
Half-life:
1 days
Other Bellini Nautica S P A Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities