V-Lab
Bellini Nautica S P A MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
44.73%
decreased by 9.33%
1 Week
42.68%
decreased by 11.38%
1 Month
43.00%
decreased by 11.06%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3951 | 18.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1086 | 4.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0114 | -0.34 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.0590 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1400 | 0.76 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7235 | 1.96* |
Persistence:
0.498
Half-life:
1 days
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