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V-Lab

Bellini Nautica S P A MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

44.73%

decreased by 9.33%

1 Week

42.68%

decreased by 11.38%

1 Month

43.00%

decreased by 11.06%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3951
18.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1086
4.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0114
-0.34
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.0590
0.73
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1400
0.76
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7235
1.96*

Persistence:

0.498

Half-life:

1 days