Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bellini Nautica S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

33.93%

increased by 1.89%

1 Week

38.94%

increased by 6.90%

1 Month

41.54%

increased by 9.50%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0547
9.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3574
4.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2094
1.95*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0062
0.51

Persistence:

0.567

Half-life:

1 days