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Bellini Nautica S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

51.01%

increased by 18.29%

1 Week

46.75%

increased by 14.03%

1 Month

44.10%

increased by 11.38%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0228
9.79***
αARCH0.3406
4.43***
βGARCH0.2282
2.07**
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0017
0.16

0.569

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0228
9.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3406
4.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2282
2.07**
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0017
0.16

Persistence:

0.569

Half-life:

1 days