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V-Lab

Bellini Nautica S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

34.62%

increased by 1.65%

1 Week

39.27%

increased by 6.30%

1 Month

41.97%

increased by 9.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0570
9.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3582
4.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2434
2.24**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0056
0.47

Persistence:

0.602

Half-life:

1 days