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Bellini Nautica S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

50.08%

decreased by 14.72%

1 Week

46.86%

decreased by 17.94%

1 Month

44.78%

decreased by 20.02%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9907
9.65***
αARCH0.3120
4.06***
βGARCH0.2764
2.25**
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0023
-0.21

0.588

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9907
9.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3120
4.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2764
2.25**
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0023
-0.21

Persistence:

0.588

Half-life:

1 days