V-Lab
Bellini Nautica S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
34.62%
increased by 1.65%
1 Week
39.27%
increased by 6.30%
1 Month
41.97%
increased by 9.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0570 | 9.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3582 | 4.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2434 | 2.24** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0056 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.602
Half-life:
1 days
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