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V-Lab

Bellini Nautica S P A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

46.39%

decreased by 7.00%

1 Week

44.04%

decreased by 9.35%

1 Month

42.63%

decreased by 10.76%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bellini Nautica S P A S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 15, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0610
9.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3556
4.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2117
1.97**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0070
0.59

Persistence:

0.567

Half-life:

1 days