V-Lab
PT Mitra Pack TBK Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
53.50%
decreased by 1.64%
1 Week
63.28%
increased by 8.14%
1 Month
70.29%
increased by 15.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2023 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8165 | 4.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2983 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3791 | 1.57 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -3.6781 | -1.08 |
| γ2 | 4.8104 | 0.75 |
| γ3 | -5.2668 | -0.78 |
| γ4 | 9.6868 | 1.56 |
| γ5 | -7.6838 | -1.82* |
| γ6 | 2.2314 | 0.86 |
Persistence:
0.677
Half-life:
2 days
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