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V-Lab

PT Mitra Pack TBK MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

55.16%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Week

67.15%

increased by 10.57%

1 Month

76.36%

increased by 19.78%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PT Mitra Pack TBK MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2023 to Aug 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 45% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2325
6.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3638
6.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1051
2.33**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

4.8446
0.88
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5873
2.55**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1652
0.53

Persistence:

0.649

Half-life:

2 days