V-Lab
PT Mitra Pack TBK MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
55.16%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
67.15%
increased by 10.57%
1 Month
76.36%
increased by 19.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2023 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 45% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2325 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3638 | 6.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1051 | 2.33** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.8446 | 0.88 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5873 | 2.55** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1652 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.649
Half-life:
2 days
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