V-Lab
Reliance Industries Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
23.13%
1 Week
23.61%
1 Month
25.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.9118 | 1.21 |
| αARCH | 0.0777 | 10.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9907 | 129.88*** |
| νDF | 5.2902 | 2.90*** |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.9118 | 1.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0777 | 10.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 129.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2902 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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