V-Lab
Obara Group Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
36.60%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
38.96%
increased by 2.61%
1 Month
43.28%
increased by 6.93%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 23% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0235 | 15.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1593 | 17.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7052 | 65.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0360 | 2.33** |
Persistence:
0.882
Half-life:
6 days
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