V-Lab
Obara Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.24%
increased by 1.09%
1 Week
31.21%
increased by 2.06%
1 Month
32.22%
increased by 3.07%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1443 | 17.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5654 | 31.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0682 | 5.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0014 | 0.38 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0035 | 1.68* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9963 | 397.71*** |
Persistence:
0.744
Half-life:
2 days
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