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V-Lab

Obara Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

30.24%

increased by 1.09%

1 Week

31.21%

increased by 2.06%

1 Month

32.22%

increased by 3.07%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Obara Group Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1443
17.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5654
31.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0682
5.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0014
0.38
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0035
1.68*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9963
397.71***

Persistence:

0.744

Half-life:

2 days