V-Lab
Xiandai Investment Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
21.17%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
20.38%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Month
22.07%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1014 | 23.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 128.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0044 | 0.71 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5489 | 5.86*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7930 | 18.27*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0815 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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