V-Lab
Xiandai Investment Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
21.44%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
21.86%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
23.37%
increased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.8079 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0802 | 53.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 582.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4949 | 17.79*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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