True Colors Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
49.83%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
54.34%
increased by 4.69%
1 Month
55.45%
increased by 5.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.52) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.6705 | 11.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2122 | 9.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5245 | 2.50** |
Persistence:
0.212
Half-life:
0 days
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