Skip to main content
V-Lab

True Colors Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

49.83%

increased by 0.18%

1 Week

54.34%

increased by 4.69%

1 Month

55.45%

increased by 5.80%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of True Colors Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.52) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.6705
11.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2122
9.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5245
2.50**

Persistence:

0.212

Half-life:

0 days