V-Lab
True Colors Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.15%
1 Week
18.24%
1 Month
15.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 4.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9676 | 1,416.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0548 | -4.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0402 | 4.82*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0501 | 7.65*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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