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V-Lab

True Colors Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

55.26%

decreased by 3.15%

1 Week

55.17%

decreased by 3.24%

1 Month

54.99%

decreased by 3.42%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of True Colors Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2335
4.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1102
7.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7838
30.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0925
1.67*
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.98***

Persistence:

0.874

Half-life:

5 days