True Colors Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
55.26%
decreased by 3.15%
1 Week
55.17%
decreased by 3.24%
1 Month
54.99%
decreased by 3.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2335 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 7.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7838 | 30.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0925 | 1.67* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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