True Colors Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
55.90%
decreased by 3.23%
1 Week
57.57%
decreased by 1.56%
1 Month
60.11%
increased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8421 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1362 | 1.78* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6986 | 3.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.7377 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
Other True Colors Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities