V-Lab
True Colors Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.15%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Week
42.06%
increased by 1.70%
1 Month
47.72%
increased by 7.36%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.1460 | 14.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1313 | 4.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8976 | 41.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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