True Colors Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
52.32%
decreased by 3.57%
1 Week
53.28%
decreased by 2.61%
1 Month
54.79%
decreased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.3433 | 16.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1388 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8410 | 24.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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