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V-Lab

True Colors Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

39.15%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Week

42.06%

increased by 1.70%

1 Month

47.72%

increased by 7.36%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of True Colors Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.1460
14.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1313
4.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8976
41.09***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.05

Persistence:

0.898

Half-life:

6 days