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V-Lab

True Colors Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

52.32%

decreased by 3.57%

1 Week

53.28%

decreased by 2.61%

1 Month

54.79%

decreased by 1.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of True Colors Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.3433
16.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1388
3.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8410
24.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

200.0000
0.04

Persistence:

0.841

Half-life:

4 days