V-Lab
APT Satellite Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
36.38%
decreased by 2.93%
1 Week
36.42%
decreased by 2.89%
1 Month
36.53%
decreased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2420 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1569 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7760 | 23.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2067 | -2.09** |
| γ2 | 0.2993 | 1.89* |
| γ3 | -0.0123 | -0.11 |
| γ4 | -0.2758 | -2.57** |
| γ5 | 0.3176 | 3.06*** |
| γ6 | -0.1676 | -2.15** |
| γ7 | 0.0763 | 1.13 |
| γ8 | -0.0146 | -0.18 |
| γ9 | -0.0305 | -0.39 |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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