V-Lab
APT Satellite Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.46%
decreased by 2.64%
1 Week
40.98%
decreased by 3.12%
1 Month
39.71%
decreased by 4.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2507 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1580 | 5.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7743 | 24.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2028 | -2.07** |
| γ2 | 0.2949 | 1.87* |
| γ3 | -0.0145 | -0.14 |
| γ4 | -0.2695 | -2.53** |
| γ5 | 0.3110 | 2.98*** |
| γ6 | -0.1610 | -2.05** |
| γ7 | 0.0684 | 1.02 |
| γ8 | -0.0053 | -0.07 |
| γ9 | -0.0383 | -0.51 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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