V-Lab
APT Satellite Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
27.83%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
29.33%
increased by 1.93%
1 Month
32.94%
increased by 5.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2683 | 4.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.1568 | 5.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7753 | 24.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1965 | -2.03** |
| γ2 | 0.2898 | 1.86* |
| γ3 | -0.0221 | -0.21 |
| γ4 | -0.2560 | -2.42** |
| γ5 | 0.2991 | 2.84*** |
| γ6 | -0.1514 | -1.88* |
| γ7 | 0.0579 | 0.86 |
| γ8 | 0.0063 | 0.09 |
| γ9 | -0.0476 | -0.66 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2683 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1568 | 5.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7753 | 24.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.1965 | -2.03** |
| γ2 | 0.2898 | 1.86* |
| γ3 | -0.0221 | -0.21 |
| γ4 | -0.2560 | -2.42** |
| γ5 | 0.2991 | 2.84*** |
| γ6 | -0.1514 | -1.88* |
| γ7 | 0.0579 | 0.86 |
| γ8 | 0.0063 | 0.09 |
| γ9 | -0.0476 | -0.66 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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