V-Lab
APT Satellite Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
46.45%
increased by 1.67%
1 Week
45.41%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
42.57%
decreased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2622 | 4.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1571 | 5.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7758 | 24.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2013 | -2.06** |
| γ2 | 0.2944 | 1.88* |
| γ3 | -0.0175 | -0.16 |
| γ4 | -0.2657 | -2.50** |
| γ5 | 0.3082 | 2.95*** |
| γ6 | -0.1588 | -2.00** |
| γ7 | 0.0653 | 0.97 |
| γ8 | -0.0005 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | -0.0428 | -0.58 |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2622 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1571 | 5.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7758 | 24.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2013 | -2.06** |
| γ2 | 0.2944 | 1.88* |
| γ3 | -0.0175 | -0.16 |
| γ4 | -0.2657 | -2.50** |
| γ5 | 0.3082 | 2.95*** |
| γ6 | -0.1588 | -2.00** |
| γ7 | 0.0653 | 0.97 |
| γ8 | -0.0005 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | -0.0428 | -0.58 |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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