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Petrolia Se GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

78.09%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

79.36%

increased by 1.27%

1 Month

84.03%

increased by 5.94%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Petrolia Se GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 11, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 daysv = 2.30 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst80.7548
1.92*
αARCH0.0512
18.43***
βGARCH0.9929
322.17***
νDF2.2952
65.24***

0.993

Persistence

98d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

80.7548
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0512
18.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9929
322.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.2952
65.24***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days