V-Lab
Petrolia Se GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
40.08%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
41.29%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
45.74%
increased by 5.47%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 310 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~310 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2099 | 4.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0639 | 4.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9283 | 117.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.0112 | 0.43 |
0.998
Persistence310d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2099 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0639 | 4.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9283 | 117.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0112 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
310 days
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