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V-Lab
V-Lab

Petrolia Se GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

40.08%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

41.29%

increased by 1.02%

1 Month

45.74%

increased by 5.47%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Petrolia Se GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 11, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 310 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~310 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2099
4.60***
αARCH0.0639
4.65***
βGARCH0.9283
117.07***
γleverage0.0112
0.43

0.998

Persistence

310d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2099
4.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0639
4.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9283
117.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0112
0.43

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

310 days