Petrolia Se GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.58%
increased by 1.16%
1 Week
45.73%
increased by 2.31%
1 Month
50.00%
increased by 6.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2328 | 18.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0645 | 18.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9269 | 459.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0109 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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