V-Lab
Petrolia Se GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
40.54%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
41.82%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
46.47%
increased by 5.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 233 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2277 | 18.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0644 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9271 | 461.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0110 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
233 days
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