V-Lab
Petrolia Se GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
40.01%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
41.26%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
45.85%
increased by 5.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~264 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2190 | 4.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0640 | 4.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9277 | 116.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.0113 | 0.43 |
0.997
Persistence264d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2190 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0640 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9277 | 116.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0113 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
264 days
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