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V-Lab

Petrolia Se MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

46.68%

increased by 1.45%

1 Week

49.17%

increased by 3.94%

1 Month

55.61%

increased by 10.38%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Petrolia Se MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 11, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1120
9.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2662
6.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0794
5.45***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

3.5285
0.61
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6955
0.79
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2409
0.23

Persistence:

0.418

Half-life:

1 days