Petrolia Se MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
46.68%
increased by 1.45%
1 Week
49.17%
increased by 3.94%
1 Month
55.61%
increased by 10.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1120 | 9.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2662 | 6.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0794 | 5.45*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.5285 | 0.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6955 | 0.79 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2409 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.418
Half-life:
1 days
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