V-Lab
APR Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
59.72%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
61.31%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
63.27%
increased by 2.73%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 0.80 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7534 | 11.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.62 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0925 | 2.56** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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