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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

27.62%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

27.83%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

28.57%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0431
3.08***
αARCH0.0660
10.70***
βGARCH0.9218
138.41***
γleverage0.5004
3.01***

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0431
3.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0660
10.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9218
138.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5004
3.01***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days