V-Lab
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.62%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
27.83%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
28.57%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0431 | 3.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0660 | 10.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9218 | 138.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.5004 | 3.01*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0431 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0660 | 10.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9218 | 138.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5004 | 3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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