V-Lab
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
48.87%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
48.72%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
48.15%
decreased by 1.40%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 77% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0412 | 16.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0426 | 19.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9336 | 605.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0328 | 6.99*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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