Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.30%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
31.44%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
31.95%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 185 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 36% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0313 | 14.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0480 | 14.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9396 | 682.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0173 | 2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
185 days
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