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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

48.87%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

48.72%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Month

48.15%

decreased by 1.40%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 77% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0412
16.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0426
19.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9336
605.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0328
6.99***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days