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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

35.25%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

35.27%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Month

35.37%

decreased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 78% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0413
16.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0421
19.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9339
607.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0329
7.05***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

91 days