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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

31.30%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

31.44%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

31.95%

decreased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 185 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 36% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0313
14.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0480
14.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9396
682.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0173
2.81***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

185 days