V-Lab
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
35.25%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
35.27%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
35.37%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 78% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0413 | 16.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0421 | 19.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9339 | 607.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0329 | 7.05*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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