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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

25.57%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

25.79%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

26.59%

increased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0432
4.29***
αARCH0.0431
4.88***
βGARCH0.9320
149.38***
γleverage0.0338
1.78*

0.992

Persistence

85d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0432
4.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0431
4.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9320
149.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0338
1.78*

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

85 days