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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

32.83%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

32.72%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

32.38%

decreased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1769
7.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0642
8.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9091
90.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0135
-3.30***
γ20.0244
4.05***
γ3-0.0139
-4.30***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days