V-Lab
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.76%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
25.11%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
26.26%
increased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1819 | 8.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0659 | 9.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9058 | 88.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0132 | -3.30*** |
| γ2 | 0.0239 | 4.05*** |
| γ3 | -0.0136 | -4.29*** |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1819 | 8.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0659 | 9.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9058 | 88.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0132 | -3.30*** |
| γ2 | 0.0239 | 4.05*** |
| γ3 | -0.0136 | -4.29*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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