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V-Lab

Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

29.74%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

29.80%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

30.00%

decreased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3814
3.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0608
7.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9033
73.64***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0204
-1.35
γ20.0282
1.41
γ30.0010
0.11
γ4-0.0139
-2.69***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days