V-Lab
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
49.69%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
48.92%
decreased by 2.13%
1 Month
46.20%
decreased by 4.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1775 | 7.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0643 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9097 | 91.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0137 | -3.28*** |
| γ2 | 0.0246 | 4.02*** |
| γ3 | -0.0141 | -4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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