Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.74%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
29.80%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
30.00%
decreased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3814 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0608 | 7.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9033 | 73.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0204 | -1.35 |
| γ2 | 0.0282 | 1.41 |
| γ3 | 0.0010 | 0.11 |
| γ4 | -0.0139 | -2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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