V-Lab
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.44%
1 Week
26.57%
1 Month
27.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0426 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.0555 | 8.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9937 | 199.22*** |
| νDF | 7.2737 | 1.53 |
0.994
Persistence110d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0426 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0555 | 8.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9937 | 199.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2737 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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