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V-Lab

CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

28.50%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

33.06%

increased by 3.52%

1 Month

36.16%

increased by 6.62%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 2015 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2913
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2716
4.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3859
4.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.7305
3.46***
γ2-4.6395
-3.91***
γ33.3024
4.28***
γ4-1.3414
-2.11**
γ5-0.6428
-0.90
γ60.4967
0.59
γ70.5113
0.49
γ8-1.0387
-0.80
γ91.4624
1.47
γ10-1.2185
-2.87***

Persistence:

0.657

Half-life:

2 days