V-Lab
CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
34.53%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
37.97%
increased by 4.32%
1 Month
40.68%
increased by 7.03%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3181 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2646 | 4.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4244 | 4.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.6950 | 3.41*** |
| γ2 | -4.5935 | -3.88*** |
| γ3 | 3.3411 | 4.30*** |
| γ4 | -1.4823 | -2.33** |
| γ5 | -0.4828 | -0.69 |
| γ6 | 0.3766 | 0.45 |
| γ7 | 0.6125 | 0.59 |
| γ8 | -1.0979 | -0.82 |
| γ9 | 1.4265 | 1.32 |
| γ10 | -1.1390 | -2.36** |
Persistence:
0.689
Half-life:
2 days
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