V-Lab
CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.36%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
35.41%
increased by 4.92%
1 Month
39.44%
increased by 8.95%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2496 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2593 | 4.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4456 | 5.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.5944 | 3.29*** |
| γ2 | -4.4786 | -3.80*** |
| γ3 | 3.3810 | 4.36*** |
| γ4 | -1.6418 | -2.61*** |
| γ5 | -0.2899 | -0.43 |
| γ6 | 0.2260 | 0.27 |
| γ7 | 0.7275 | 0.71 |
| γ8 | -1.1640 | -0.86 |
| γ9 | 1.4202 | 1.24 |
| γ10 | -1.1105 | -2.06** |
Persistence:
0.705
Half-life:
2 days
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