CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.50%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
33.06%
increased by 3.52%
1 Month
36.16%
increased by 6.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2913 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2716 | 4.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3859 | 4.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.7305 | 3.46*** |
| γ2 | -4.6395 | -3.91*** |
| γ3 | 3.3024 | 4.28*** |
| γ4 | -1.3414 | -2.11** |
| γ5 | -0.6428 | -0.90 |
| γ6 | 0.4967 | 0.59 |
| γ7 | 0.5113 | 0.49 |
| γ8 | -1.0387 | -0.80 |
| γ9 | 1.4624 | 1.47 |
| γ10 | -1.2185 | -2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.657
Half-life:
2 days
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