V-Lab
CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
30.62%
increased by 2.65%
1 Week
32.34%
increased by 4.37%
1 Month
37.04%
increased by 9.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3944 | 2.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.2262 | 2.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8035 | 19.24*** |
| γleverage | -0.1499 | -1.53 |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3944 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2262 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8035 | 19.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1499 | -1.53 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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