V-Lab
CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
87.28%
decreased by 6.54%
1 Week
105.21%
increased by 11.39%
1 Month
153.93%
increased by 60.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.02 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 540.7128 | 0.66 |
| αARCH | 0.1648 | 27.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9864 | 48.89*** |
| νDF | 2.0201 | 557.72*** |
0.986
Persistence51d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 540.7128 | 0.66 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1648 | 27.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 48.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0201 | 557.72*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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