V-Lab
CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
145.55%
increased by 30.82%
1 Week
153.77%
increased by 39.04%
1 Month
180.88%
increased by 66.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.02 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 483.1664 | 0.69 |
| αARCH | 0.1608 | 28.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9876 | 56.67*** |
| νDF | 2.0233 | 518.80*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 483.1664 | 0.69 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1608 | 28.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9876 | 56.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0233 | 518.80*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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