V-Lab
CH Biotech R&D Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
159.01%
increased by 23.74%
1 Week
165.99%
increased by 30.72%
1 Month
188.80%
increased by 53.53%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.03 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 365.4628 | 2.35** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1692 | 94.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9828 | 136.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0259 | 1,376.30*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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