V-Lab
Yw Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
35.21%
increased by 2.05%
1 Week
35.65%
increased by 2.49%
1 Month
37.35%
increased by 4.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 66.9384 | 8.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1003 | 107.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 8,256.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3646 | 121.66*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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