V-Lab
Yw Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
27.47%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
28.48%
increased by 1.25%
1 Month
31.32%
increased by 4.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3707 | 4.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1178 | 6.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8382 | 33.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0221 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | 0.0130 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | -0.0137 | -0.28 |
| γ4 | 0.0920 | 2.20** |
| γ5 | -0.1568 | -3.32*** |
| γ6 | 0.2358 | 2.46** |
0.956
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3707 | 4.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1178 | 6.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8382 | 33.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0221 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | 0.0130 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | -0.0137 | -0.28 |
| γ4 | 0.0920 | 2.20** |
| γ5 | -0.1568 | -3.32*** |
| γ6 | 0.2358 | 2.46** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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