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V-Lab
V-Lab

Yw Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

27.47%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

28.48%

increased by 1.25%

1 Month

31.32%

increased by 4.09%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Yw Co Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 11, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3707
4.61***
αARCH0.1178
6.73***
βGARCH0.8382
33.88***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0221
-0.41
γ20.0130
0.17
γ3-0.0137
-0.28
γ40.0920
2.20**
γ5-0.1568
-3.32***
γ60.2358
2.46**

0.956

Persistence

15d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3707
4.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1178
6.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8382
33.88***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0221
-0.41
γ20.0130
0.17
γ3-0.0137
-0.28
γ40.0920
2.20**
γ5-0.1568
-3.32***
γ60.2358
2.46**

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days