Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
95.11%
increased by 1.47%
1 Week
95.67%
increased by 2.03%
1 Month
97.86%
increased by 4.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 194 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 96.5677 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0945 | 44.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 2,838.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2400 | 17.89*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
194 days
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