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V-Lab

Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

95.11%

increased by 1.47%

1 Week

95.67%

increased by 2.03%

1 Month

97.86%

increased by 4.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 194 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

96.5677
6.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0945
44.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9964
2,838.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2400
17.89***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

194 days