V-Lab
Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
80.26%
increased by 6.68%
1 Week
81.02%
increased by 7.44%
1 Month
83.92%
increased by 10.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 192 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 93.1319 | 6.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0929 | 44.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 2,664.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2495 | 18.00*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
192 days
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